COVID-19 cases are still climbing in hard-hit US states New York, New Jersey and Louisiana—but hospitalizations appear to be slowing, indicating the curve could be flattening, according to Reuters.
New York reported 599 new deaths Monday, close to Sunday’s count of 594 and down from 630 on Saturday.
An updated University of Washington forecasting model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also showed a decline in the expected deaths in the US—to 49,431 to 136,401, down from 138,000 to 177,866—during COVID-19’s first wave, the AP reports.
As the media swarms the coronavirus story, most news articles focus on numbers of cases and deaths, new locations of cases, etc.
Lost in the shuffle are the important public health insights about how viruses work and humans respond. To help improve understanding of an emerging outbreak’s complex dynamics, GHN has reached out to some of the world’s most respected global health experts for their quick "reality checks" on key issues related to the outbreak.
A mix of legacy drug makers and small startups have stepped forward with plans to develop vaccines or treatments that target the infection caused by the novel coronavirus.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was first detected in December in Wuhan, China, has sickened more than 1,150,000 people worldwide and killed at least 64,500. There are no approved vaccines or therapies for the disease although the use of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate to treat COVID-19 patients is authorised.
Since the global outbreak of COVID-19, researchers have scrambled to develop and share models which can predict how the virus will spread. This is inherently tricky, as we know so little about the disease, and a model is only ever as good as the information you put into it.
Researchers at Imperial College London produced a model that predicted there could be more than 510,000 deaths in the UK in the absence of preventative measures by the government, assuming that each person with the virus would give it to between 2 and 2.6 other people.